While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 El Nino a few months in advance, the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large El Nino events up to two years in advance. That would be good news for governments, farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that El Nino can produce in various parts of the world. Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate El Nino events dating back to 1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures. The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature. The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C. Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said it "suggests El Nino is indeed predictable." "This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods." said Weare. He added that the new method "makes it possible to predict El Nino at long lead times." Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said. The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacific is of immense importance. The 1997 El Nino, for example, caused an estimated $20 billion in damage worldwide, offset by beneficial effects in other areas, said David Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasts in Reading England. The 1877 El Nino, meanwhile, coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson said. When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report. While predicting smaller El Nino events remains tricky, the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed. El Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February. The warming tends to last between 9 and 12 months and occurs every two to seven years. The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible.
1. The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict El Nino a few months in advance.
A.Right
B.Wrong
C.Not mentioned
A B C
B
[解析] 根据第一段第一句“While some forecasting methods had limited success predicting the 1997 EI Nino a few months in advance, the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large El Nino events up to two years in advance.”可知，最远能提前到两年，而问题句说“提前几个月”，所以选B。
2. The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past El Nino occurrences and sea-surface temperatures.
A.Right
B.Wrong
C.Not mentioned
A B C
A
[解析] 根据第二段第一句“Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later EI Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000”可知，与问题内容一致，所以选A。
3. The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past El Nino occurrences.
A.Right
B.Wrong
C.Not mentioned
A B C
C
[解析] 根据第四段最后一句“Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare said.”可知，本文并未提到题目说的内容，所以选C。
4. Weare's contribution in predicting El Nino, was highly praised by other meteorologists.
5. According to a Chinese report, the flooding in China caused by El Nino in 1991 and 1997 affected 200 million Chinese people.
A.right
B.Wrong
C.Not mentioned
A B C
B
[解析] 根据第六段内容“When El Nino hit in 1991 and 1997，200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report.”可知，题目内容错误，所以选B。
6. It takes about eight months for El Nino to reach its peak.
A.right
B.Wrong
C.Not mentioned
A B C
A
[解析] 根据第八段内容“El Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February.”可知，El Nino需要大约8个月达到峰值，所以选A。
7. A special institute has been set up in America to study El Nino.
1. Recently ten laboratories run by governments in different parts of the world have become linked. Their computers have been connected so they can "talk" to each other. This may not seem very dramatic news, but it is the beginning of a development that will increase the power of the Internet tremendously. 2. The Internet is an interconnected (互联) system of networks that connects computers round the world and facilitates the transmission and exchange of information. The way that you use the Internet is by accessing this network. This depends on the power that your system allows you to use. The power of your computer is responsible for how fast you can download (下载) files, how much data you can store, etc. If your computer is old and slow, accessing the information can be very difficult. 3. The new development in information technology has been called "the grid" (网格技术), and it will be a network of computers that are linked together. The "grid" will work in a different way from the Internet, enabling you to get the power of the biggest computers in the world on your computer. Accessing the information will no longer depend on the power of your computer. The idea is that while you access information, you will also have access to the power of the bigger computer stations. 4. One advantage of this revolutionary idea is that geographical location will become irrelevant. The "grid" will decide which are the best parts of a worldwide network to do the job you want. This means that you may be accessing a computer in Japan to solve a problem in Alaska. 5. The "grid" can be compared to having an efficient personal assistant. You can give your assistant a task and "he" will do it for you. The assistant will do the preliminary research, collect the data, compare them and decide on the best course of action by accessing any of the computer centres in the "grid" that happen to have the relevant information. All you have to do is assign the task, sit back and wait. 6. At present, possible applications of the "grid" in scientific research are being explored. While it has taken about fifteen years for Internet use to become widespread, experts believe that the "grid" could be up and running for private individuals far more quickly. Scientists working on "grid" projects are convinced that it will be as widely used as the web in the next ten years. A. How does the "grid" work? B. Power shared C. Just make a request D. Limitations of present Internet use E. Distance is not a problem F. A new era for the Internet
1. Paragraph 2 ______.
D
[解析] 第二段说在传统互联网里，信息传输速度、存储容量大小取决于个人电脑的性能。与未来的网格技术相比，这是传统互联网的缺点，故选D．Limitations of present Internet use.
[解析] 第五段讲网格能成为我们的私人助手。只要给网格下任务，网格就能通过联网的计算机自动寻找解决方案。C．“Just make a request”即表达了这一意思。故选C。
5. A. the bigger computer stations B. the advantage C. ten years D. information E. your personal assistant F. fifteen years Traditionally the power of your computer determines how fast you can access ______.
D
[解析] 题意为：电脑的性能取决于电脑获取的能力。从文章第二段可知，此处应填“信息”，故选D。
6. The "grid" will enable you to get on your computer the power of ______ in the world.
A
[解析] 根据第三段最后一句while you access information, you will also have access to the power of the bigger computer stations可知，此处应填the bigger computer stations，故选A。
7. The "grid" would be like ______, who can perform your tasks efficiently.
E
[解析] 根据第五段第一句话The "grid" can be compared to having an efficient personal assistant可知，此处应填your personal assistant，故选E。
8. It is believed that the widespread use of the "grid" will become possible in the next ______.
C
[解析] 根据第六段最后一句话Scientists working on "grid" projects are convinced that it will be as widely used as the web in the next ten years可知，应是未来十年。故选C。
第4部分：阅读理解 下面有3篇短文，每篇短文后有5道题。请根据短文内容，为每题确定1个最佳选项。
第一篇
The Emic and Etic Approaches
Researchers who are unfamiliar with the cultural and ethnic groups they are studying must take extra precautions to shed any biases they bring with them from their own culture. For example, they must make sure they construct measures that are meaningful for each of the cultural or ethnic minority groups being studied. In conducting research on cultural and ethnic minority issues, investigators distinguish between the emic approach and the etic approach. In the emic approach, the goal is to describe behavior in one culture or ethnic group in terms that are meaningful and important to the people in that culture or ethnic group, without regard to other cultures or ethnic groups. In the etic approach, the goal is to describe behavior so that generalizations can be made across cultures. If researchers construct a questionnaire in an emic fashion, their concern is only that the questions are meaningful to the particular culture or ethnic group being studied. If, however, the researchers construct a questionnaire in an etic fashion, they want to include questions that reflect concepts familiar to all cultures involved. How might the emic and etic approaches be reflected in the study of family processes? In the emic approach, the researchers might choose to focus only on middle-class White families, without regard to whether the information obtained in the study can be generalized or is appropriate for ethnic minority groups. In a subsequent study, the researchers may decide to adopt an etic approach by studying not only middle-class White families, but also lower-income White families, Black American families, Spanish American families, and Asian American families. In studying ethnic minority families, the researchers would likely discover that the extended family is more frequently a support system in ethnic minority families than in White American families. If so, the emic approach would reveal a more different pattern of family interaction than would the etic approach, documenting that research with middle class White families cannot always be generalized to all ethnic groups.
1. According to the first paragraph, researchers unfamiliar with the target cultures are inclined to ______.
A.be overcautious in constructing meaningful measures
B.view them from their own cultural perspective
C.guard against interference from their own culture
D.accept readily what is alien to their own culture
By the year 2000 nearly half the workforce in Europe are over 40 and yet throughout Europe there is a deep ambivalence (犹豫)-if not outright suspicion-towards the capabilities of older workers. Those over the age of 40 generally take longer to find new employment, but European governments have done little to protect their employment rights. Only Germany, with incentives to business to encourage the employment of older people, and France, with the introduction of legislation making it illegal to use age barriers in recruitment-or to make employees redundant because of their age done anything substantive to combat age discrimination. Yet even in these two countries, there has been no noticeable improvement in the lot of the older workers; indeed, in France, job advertisements flout (轻视，反对) the law openly by asking for applicants of a certain age. So, should France and Germany be tightening up their laws and should the rest of Europe follow suit? Bill Robbins, a careers consultant said, "Legislation against age discrimination has been in existence for well over ten year in the U.S. and Canada, but has had no effect. Employers will always be able to find some reasons for turning down an older applicant without appearing to break the law." Ironically, it was governments which played a leading role in hardening business culture against older workers in the first place. In the late 1970s, many European countries were extremely concerned about the levels of youth unemployment, and France, Germany and Belgium even initiated incentive schemes for businesses to encourage older employees to take early retirement provided that younger trainees were taken on in their place. As more and more employees took early retirement, often willingly, a new, youth-oriented culture permeated business throughout most of Europe-even in those countries that had taken no active measures to promote it. Demographic (人口统计学) trends mean that governments are now anxious to slow down the policy of early retirement as they realize that they simply do not have the funds to meet their pension promises. But reversing business attitudes is no easy matter. Dianah Worman a policy adviser said, "There is a widely held belief that older people are less adaptable and trainable. This is just not true: research has shown that differences in capability are as wide within age groups as they are between them."
1. Which of the following words can best describe the European attitude to older workers?
Personality is to large extent inherent. A-type parents usually bring A-type offspring. But the environment must also have a profound effect, since if competition is important to the parents, it is likely to become a major factor in the lives of their children. One place where children soak up (浸泡) A characteristics is school, which is, by its very nature, a highly competitive institution. Too many schools adopt the "win at all costs" moral standard and measure their success by sporting achievements. The current passion for making children compete against their classmates or against the clock produces a two-layer system, in which competitive A-types seem in some way better than their B-type fellows. Being too keen to win can have dangerous consequences: Remember that Philippines, the first marathon runner, dropped dead seconds after saying, "Rejoice, We conquer!" By far the worst form of competition in schools is the disproportionate emphasis on examinations. It is a rare school that allows pupils to concentrate on those things they do well. The merits of competition by examination are somewhat questionable, but competition in the certain knowledge of failure is positively harmful. Obviously, it is neither practical nor desirable that all A youngsters change into B's. The world needs types, and schools have an important duty to try to fit a child's personality to hide possible future employment. It is top management. If the preoccupation of schools with academic work was lessened, more time might be spent teaching children surer values. Perhaps selection for the caring professions, especially medicine, could be made less by good grades in chemistry and more by such considerations as sensitivity and sympathy. It is surely a mistake to choose our doctors exclusively form A-type stock. B's are important and should be encouraged.
1. In line 2, Para. 2 the word "institution" refers to ______.
A.establishment
B.social custom
C.law
D.school
A B C D
D
[解析] 在第二段第一句中，which引导的非限制性定语从句修饰school，因此说school is a highly competitive institution，选项D正确。
2. According to the passage, A-type individuals are in most cases ______.
3. The author strongly objects to the practice of examination at schools because ______.
A.the pressure is too great on the students
B.some students are bound to fail
C.failure rates are too high
D.the results of examinations are doubtful
A B C D
B
[解析] 根据文章第三段第三句：...competition in the certain knowledge of failure is positively harmful(在失败方面的竞争是有百害而无一利的)。A、D都是无关选项；C过于片面。
4. The selection of medical professionals is currently based on ______.
A.candidates' sensitivity
B.academic achievements
C.competitive spirit
D.surer values
A B C D
B
[解析] 根据第五段第二句：句首用perhaps...could be made，说明by such considerations as sensitivity and sympathy还只是一种期望，现在还用by good grades。by good grades与academic achievement同义。
5. From the passage, we can draw the conclusion that ______.
A.the personality of a child is well established at birth
B.family influence dominates the shaping of one's characteristics
C.the development of one's personality is due to multiple factors
D.B-type characteristics can find no place in a competitive society
When it comes to economic decisions, there are always trade offs (取舍). Gain one thing and you lose something else. 1 The central argument of Michael Moore's movie "Sicko" -that the cure to the nation health care problems is a single-payer system-is hardly novel and is certainly worth consideration, whether or not you agree with it. But in comparing the American system with single-payer plans of other countries-Britain, France, Canada and Cuba Mr. Moore left out the trade-offs, characterizing those countries as health care paradises. 2 Kurt Loder, the film critic who is best known as the anchor (主持人) of "MTV News" , wrote a critique (批评) of the film for MTV's website. "Sicko," he said, "does a real service" in portraying (描绘) victims of American insurance companies'-like the people, who died because their only treatment options were considered "experimental" and therefore not covered. 3 When "governments attempt to regulate the balance between a limited supply of health care and an unlimited demand for it, they're inevitably forced to ration treatment". Mr. Loder asserted. 4 Mr. Loder cited the short film "Dead Meat", which presents anecdotes (轶事) of failure. In the Canadian single-payer system in its one-sidedness, "Dead Meat" , might have made for a nice double feature with "Sicko", and left movie-goers with a more complete understanding of the complications of deciding on a health care system 5 This all makes an otherwise "emotionally compelling film not necessarily an intellectually satisfying one," wrote Darren Barefoot, a Canadian blogger. (博客作者). A. This is particularly true in health care, a market in which scarce (稀罕的) goods are ridiculously expensive, but needed by everybody. B. Mr. Moore also decided to ignore problems in other countries, like France's high taxes and Britain's cash-short hospitals. C. But the film as a whole, he concluded, is "breathtakingly meretricious (似是而非的)," in large part because of its characterizations of other countries' health care systems. D. The problems have been noticed-and criticism is coming not just from Mr. Moore's detractors (底 E. He ticked off a number of negative statistics to counter the positive ones offered by Mr. Moore. F. Health care is the prevention, treatment, and management of illness.
Can exercise be a bad thing? Sudden death during or soon after strenuous exertion on the squash court or on the army training grounds, is not unheard of. 1 trained marathon runners are not immune to fatal heart attacks. But no one knows just 2 common these sudden deaths linked to exercise are. The registration and investigation of such 3 is very patchy; only a national survey could determine the true 4 of sudden deaths in sports. But the climate of medical opinion is shifting in 5 of exercise, for the person recovering from a heart attack as 6 as the average lazy individual. Training can help the victim of a heart attack by lowering the 7 of oxygen the heart needs at any given level of work 8 the patient can do more before reaching the point where chest pains indicate a heart starved of oxygen. The question is, should middle-aged people, 9 particular, be screened for signs of heart disease before 10 vigorous exercise? Most cases of sudden death in sport are caused by lethal arrhythmias in the beating of the heart, often in people 11 undiagnosed coronary heart disease. In North America 12 over 35 is advised to have a physical check-up and even an exercise electrocardiogram. The British, on the whole, think all this testing is unnecessary. Not many people die from exercise, 13 , and ECGs (心电图) are notoriously inaccurate. However, two medical cardiologists at the Victoria Infirmary in Glasgow, advocate screening by exercise ECG for people over 40, or younger people 14 at risk of developing coronary heart disease. Individuals showing a particular abnormality in their ECGs 15 , they say, a 10 to 20 times greater risk of subsequently developing signs of coronary heart disease, or of sudden death.
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